Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 56573.802125 59923.305640 63279.101535 66890.776681 70665.258159 74490.761551 78658.379277
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 51535.804607 56670.341658 61965.058030 67824.318495 74117.963761 80666.387668 87986.264211
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 47931.659816 54283.106098 60981.956076 68555.978005 76863.341630 85679.609933 95725.015425
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 44945.844104 52184.743061 59965.522460 68921.397144 78915.005294 89693.341606 102166.081688
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 42288.568321 50197.342203 58841.616424 68948.410112 80396.342725 92916.208477 107597.667914
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 40216.285967 48698.833547 58110.592741 69269.299680 82077.132553 96256.481930 113077.523772
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 38255.172189 47194.315412 57252.211344 69331.577825 83365.484248 99076.282765 117910.694039
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 37071.217602 46508.732614 57261.651835 70325.288035 85667.350963 103012.561726 123999.074235
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 35378.182044 45130.672681 56381.341633 70205.209264 86612.134111 105339.630638 128201.797657
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 34511.224754 44687.648570 56558.416140 71291.617840 88941.524652 109258.199792 134255.162092
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 33517.623291 44037.861148 56442.750795 71989.244496 90781.173885 112587.608434 139618.469053
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 32253.904389 43000.227973 55808.887928 72017.159615 91783.464495 114903.457512 143773.095129
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 30916.920769 41836.332674 54994.733765 71809.198270 92498.814448 116892.439115 147576.170496
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 30278.928054 41524.027902 55208.356386 72847.705773 94724.806105 120700.552932 153585.276624
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 29564.173936 41081.946690 55233.949703 73632.340984 96627.768462 124118.671756 159139.202171
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 28711.444788 40427.795101 54963.264451 74021.192767 98023.979385 126913.547381 163942.351816
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 27746.504440 39591.763740 54429.919608 74050.181911 98949.980332 129120.273430 168025.660704
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 26974.973878 38980.886708 54158.947822 74389.969541 100249.487370 131779.844250 172670.162144
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 26127.614883 38239.387935 53692.746346 74455.913616 101185.318674 133979.530352 176747.652581
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 25741.782087 38100.700152 53997.858693 75507.787110 103371.766265 137743.971136 182789.011013
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 24889.875113 37302.507878 53412.858718 75380.689929 104033.571308 139589.702879 186435.127323
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 24594.422686 37252.926048 53808.048973 76530.513645 106339.208969 143514.688394 192712.526850
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 24151.490965 36983.679366 53897.746072 77268.756902 108109.246954 146767.243408 198159.070309